{"_buckets": {"deposit": "185ac1bb-a75d-4c65-9317-74e85a459d01"}, "_deposit": {"id": "2676", "owners": [1], "pid": {"revision_id": 0, "type": "depid", "value": "2676"}, "status": "published"}, "_oai": {"id": "oai:nied-repo.bosai.go.jp:00002676", "sets": []}, "author_link": [], "item_10001_biblio_info_7": {"attribute_name": "書誌情報", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"bibliographicIssueDates": {"bibliographicIssueDate": "2022", "bibliographicIssueDateType": "Issued"}, "bibliographicIssueNumber": "6", "bibliographicPageEnd": "1005", "bibliographicPageStart": "995", "bibliographicVolumeNumber": "100", "bibliographic_titles": [{"bibliographic_title": "気象集誌. 第2輯", "bibliographic_titleLang": "ja"}, {"bibliographic_title": "Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II", "bibliographic_titleLang": "en"}]}]}, "item_10001_description_5": {"attribute_name": "抄録", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"subitem_description": "近年、日本では線状の大雨域として特徴づけられる線状降水帯による洪水や土砂災害が頻発している。このような災害を防止・軽減するためには、十分なリードタイムを確保すると共に数時間の積算雨量を高精度に予測する必要がある。気象庁が提供する速報版降水短時間予報は、外挿予測と数値予測を合成することによって6時間先までの1時間毎の1時間積算雨量を予測しており、この目的に適したプロダクトといえる。本研究は、気象庁速報版降水短時間予報を用いて、2019年と2020年に九州地方で発生した線状降水帯21事例における3時間積算雨量の予測可能性を調査した。予報時間毎に統計的な検証指標を用いて精度評価を行った結果、線状降水帯に対応する80mm(3h)\u003csup\u003e-1\u003c/sup\u003eの閾値では、元の格子間隔1kmに対し2時間先までの予測において有用な予測の基準を満たしていた。一方、3時間先以降の予測については、市町村規模またはそれ以上の規模（15～31km）の位置ズレを許容しても有用な予測結果は得られなかった。さらに、線状降水帯の検出開始からの経過時間による予測精度の変化を調べた結果、検出開始直後では外挿予測の性能が低いため、2時間先までの予測であっても精度が低いことが分かった。線状降水帯の発生期における予測精度は、警報発令や避難決定のタイミングにも影響を及ぼすため、本結果は今後の線状降水帯予測システムの開発における重要な課題を示したものといえる。", "subitem_description_language": "ja", "subitem_description_type": "Other"}, {"subitem_description": "In recent years, “senjo-kousuitai”, characterized as a band-shaped area of heavy rainfall, has frequently caused river floods and landslides in Japan. Preventing and mitigating such disasters requires skillful forecasts of accumulated rainfall for several hours with an adequate lead time. The immediate very-short-range forecast of precipitation (VSRF) provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency is well suited to this purpose, representing a blended forecast of hourly accumulated precipitation for up to 6 h ahead based on extrapolation and numerical weather prediction. This study examined the predictability of the VSRF for 3-h accumulated precipitation associated with 21 senjo-kousuitai events that occurred in Kyushu in 2019 and 2020. Predictability was evaluated based on forecast accuracy at each forecast time (FT; 1?6 h) using categorical and neighborhood verification techniques. Overall, the VSRF product was useful for heavy rainfall areas of ? 80 mm (3h)\u003csup\u003e?1\u003c/sup\u003e up to an FT of 2 h at the original grid spacing of 1 km, but with large uncertainty in the accuracy of the forecasts. After that FT, it was not possible to obtain a useful precipitation forecast for the threshold of ? 80 mm (3h)\u003csup\u003e?1\u003c/sup\u003e, even if displacement errors at municipal or larger scale (15?31 km) were tolerated. Further analysis showed that the VSRF is less skillful in the stage of senjo-kousuitai formation at shorter FTs (1?2 h) owing to limitations of the extrapolation forecasts. The poor skill during this period affects the timing of both issuance of warnings and decision-making regarding evacuation, representing major challenges for future development of forecasting methods and systems for senjo-kousuitai.", "subitem_description_language": "en", "subitem_description_type": "Other"}]}, "item_10001_publisher_8": {"attribute_name": "出版者", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"subitem_publisher": "公益社団法人 日本気象学会", "subitem_publisher_language": "ja"}, {"subitem_publisher": "Meteorological Society of Japan", "subitem_publisher_language": "en"}]}, "item_10001_relation_13": {"attribute_name": "PubMed番号", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"subitem_relation_type_id": {"subitem_relation_type_id_text": "10.2151/jmsj.2022-052"}}]}, "item_10001_source_id_9": {"attribute_name": "ISSN", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"subitem_source_identifier": "2186-9057", "subitem_source_identifier_type": "EISSN"}]}, "item_creator": {"attribute_name": "著者", "attribute_type": "creator", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"creatorNames": [{"creatorName": "初塚 大輔", "creatorNameLang": "ja"}, {"creatorName": "HATSUZUKA Daisuke", "creatorNameLang": "en"}]}]}, "item_language": {"attribute_name": "言語", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"subitem_language": "eng"}]}, "item_title": "気象庁降水短時間予報を用いた線状降水帯に伴う3時間積算雨量の予測精度検証", "item_titles": {"attribute_name": "タイトル", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"subitem_title": "気象庁降水短時間予報を用いた線状降水帯に伴う3時間積算雨量の予測精度検証", "subitem_title_language": "ja"}, {"subitem_title": "Verification of Forecasted Three-Hour Accumulated Precipitation Associated with “Senjo-Kousuitai” from Very-Short-Range Forecasting Operated by the JMA", "subitem_title_language": "en"}]}, "item_type_id": "40001", "owner": "1", "path": ["1670839190650"], "permalink_uri": "https://nied-repo.bosai.go.jp/records/2676", "pubdate": {"attribute_name": "PubDate", "attribute_value": "2023-03-22"}, "publish_date": "2023-03-22", "publish_status": "0", "recid": "2676", "relation": {}, "relation_version_is_last": true, "title": ["気象庁降水短時間予報を用いた線状降水帯に伴う3時間積算雨量の予測精度検証"], "weko_shared_id": -1}