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  1. 防災科研関係論文

Rapid Estimation of Direct Economic Losses Caused by Significant Earthquakes: An Evidence-Based Model and its Applications

https://nied-repo.bosai.go.jp/records/3703
https://nied-repo.bosai.go.jp/records/3703
848de966-7a7e-4a6f-a7b4-881f8987990e
Item type researchmap(1)
公開日 2025-03-17
タイトル
言語 en
タイトル Rapid Estimation of Direct Economic Losses Caused by Significant Earthquakes: An Evidence-Based Model and its Applications
言語
言語 eng
著者 Toshihisa Toyoda

× Toshihisa Toyoda

en Toshihisa Toyoda

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Qinglin Cui

× Qinglin Cui

en Qinglin Cui

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Masaki Ikeda

× Masaki Ikeda

en Masaki Ikeda

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Hiromitsu Nakamura

× Hiromitsu Nakamura

en Hiromitsu Nakamura

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Hiroyuki Fujiwara

× Hiroyuki Fujiwara

en Hiroyuki Fujiwara

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抄録
内容記述タイプ Other
内容記述 This paper presents a rapid or real-time estimation method of the economic value of direct stock damages caused by significant earthquakes in Japan. The result will contribute to both the government and private sectors’ early decision-making, particularly for provisional budget allocation. First, we developed a simple but evidence-based model for estimating stock losses explained by a representative earthquake hazard factor and an exposure factor, i.e., seismic intensity and existing stock of physical assets. The key characteristic of our estimation model is that the dependent variable is prefectural damage amount. Still, the explanatory variables come from municipal sources: we overcome this data availability problem through our estimation process. Second, we carefully checked the model’s specification, estimation, and performance to be soundly applied to a real-time assessment of future earthquake events. We also explain the automated measuring of the prefectural direct loss value and its distribution to every 250 m mesh. Finally, we show two examples of the application of our model; one is the case of the 2018 Northern Osaka Earthquake, and the other is the anticipated Tokyo inland earthquake.
言語 en
書誌情報 en : Journal of Disaster Research

巻 18, 号 2, p. 178-189, 発行日 2023-02-01
出版者
言語 en
出版者 Fuji Technology Press Ltd.
ISSN
収録物識別子タイプ EISSN
収録物識別子 1883-8030
DOI
関連識別子 10.20965/jdr.2023.p0178
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