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  1. 防災科研関係論文

How precisely can we anticipate seismic intensities? A study of uncertainty of anticipated seismic intensities for the Earthquake Early Warning method in Japan

https://nied-repo.bosai.go.jp/records/3917
https://nied-repo.bosai.go.jp/records/3917
c8909961-5798-4828-8d9f-b9de4def02da
Item type researchmap(1)
公開日 2023-04-27
タイトル
言語 en
タイトル How precisely can we anticipate seismic intensities? A study of uncertainty of anticipated seismic intensities for the Earthquake Early Warning method in Japan
言語
言語 eng
著者 Mitsuyuki Hoshiba

× Mitsuyuki Hoshiba

en Mitsuyuki Hoshiba

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Kazuo Ohtake

× Kazuo Ohtake

en Kazuo Ohtake

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Kazuhiro Iwakiri

× Kazuhiro Iwakiri

en Kazuhiro Iwakiri

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Tamotsu Aketagawa

× Tamotsu Aketagawa

en Tamotsu Aketagawa

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Hiromitsu Nakamura

× Hiromitsu Nakamura

en Hiromitsu Nakamura

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Shunroku Yamamoto

× Shunroku Yamamoto

en Shunroku Yamamoto

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抄録
内容記述タイプ Other
内容記述 The precise calculation of anticipated seismic intensity is an important component of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) procedures. The EEW method adopted by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) uses event magnitude, hypocentral distance, and site amplification factor for this calculation, in which the site amplification factor is represented by a single scalar without consideration of spectrum contents. Even when two earthquakes occur at the same location with the same magnitude, their observed distributions of seismic intensity are not always the same. And even at adjacent measurement stations, the interstation difference in seismic intensity of one earthquake is not always the same as that of another earthquake. To evaluate these expected uncertainties in the current JMA EEW method, we analyzed the distribution of recorded seismic intensities from adjacent earthquakes and also compared the intensities at adjacent observation sites. The uncertainties are 0.29 JMA intensity units when the JMA magnitude is used as an index of source factor and 0.22 when the average of the observed seismic intensities is used. The uncertainties are 0.21 when site amplification factor is represented by single scalar value. These results may indicate the intrinsic precision limits of anticipated seismic intensities in the current JMA EEW method.
言語 en
書誌情報 en : EARTH PLANETS AND SPACE

巻 62, 号 8, p. 611-620, 発行日 2010
出版者
言語 en
出版者 TERRA SCIENTIFIC PUBL CO
ISSN
収録物識別子タイプ EISSN
収録物識別子 1880-5981
DOI
関連識別子 10.5047/eps.2010.07.013
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