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  1. 防災科研関係論文

Accuracy of the solar irradiance forecasts of the Japan Meteorological Agency mesoscale model for the Kanto region, Japan

https://nied-repo.bosai.go.jp/records/4375
https://nied-repo.bosai.go.jp/records/4375
e89b57e0-cba6-4682-9a33-033b008683a4
Item type researchmap(1)
公開日 2023-03-30
タイトル
言語 en
タイトル Accuracy of the solar irradiance forecasts of the Japan Meteorological Agency mesoscale model for the Kanto region, Japan
言語
言語 eng
著者 Hideaki Ohtake

× Hideaki Ohtake

en Hideaki Ohtake

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Ken-ichi Shimose

× Ken-ichi Shimose

en Ken-ichi Shimose

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Joao Gari da Silva Fonseca

× Joao Gari da Silva Fonseca

en Joao Gari da Silva Fonseca

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Takumi Takashima

× Takumi Takashima

en Takumi Takashima

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Takashi Oozeki

× Takashi Oozeki

en Takashi Oozeki

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Yoshinori Yamada

× Yoshinori Yamada

en Yoshinori Yamada

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抄録
内容記述タイプ Other
内容記述 In this study, forecast characteristics of a global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasts by a meteorological mesoscale model (MSM) developed by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) for the Kanto region, Japan were investigated during the period 2008-2010 for the next day based on forecast on different issue times on the previous day of photovoltaic (PV) power production.The evaluation of the GHI forecasting errors by MSM showed that the mean bias error (MBE) values of the GHI range from -50 to 50 W/m(2) in a year. The root mean square error (RMSE) values in winter were about 90-100 W/m(2), while the RMSE values in summer approached up to 150 W/m(2). The hourly GHI forecasting errors indicated that the GHI values were generally underestimated (overestimated) in summer (winter) compared with the observations. The dependence on different four initial times were found from RMSE values, suggesting that forecasts of initial time of 21UTC were generally better than those of the other initial times.Appearance frequency of cloud types based on the visual monitoring in cases of relatively large GHI forecasting errors, which cases were selected by normalized forecast error by the surface observations (the threshold of >0.4 or <-0.4 are given for the Kanto region), indicated that stratocumulus (cirrus) clouds for the overestimation (underestimation) of the GHI were occurred significantly, while altocumulus and cumulus clouds were observed as a whole. Verifications in GHI forecasts indicated that improvements of the treatment of these clouds in MSM were necessary for the GHI forecasting and the PV power production accurately. Crown Copyright (C) 2012 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
言語 en
書誌情報 en : SOLAR ENERGY

巻 98, p. 138-152
出版者
言語 en
出版者 PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
ISSN
収録物識別子タイプ ISSN
収録物識別子 0038-092X
DOI
関連識別子 10.1016/j.solener.2012.10.007
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