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  1. 防災科研関係論文

Regional and seasonal characteristics of global horizontal irradiance forecasts obtained from the Japan Meteorological Agency mesoscale model

https://nied-repo.bosai.go.jp/records/4376
https://nied-repo.bosai.go.jp/records/4376
840b1069-8361-4cd4-9731-af844b4bb1eb
Item type researchmap(1)
公開日 2023-03-30
タイトル
言語 en
タイトル Regional and seasonal characteristics of global horizontal irradiance forecasts obtained from the Japan Meteorological Agency mesoscale model
言語
言語 eng
著者 Hideaki Ohtake

× Hideaki Ohtake

en Hideaki Ohtake

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Joao Gari da Silva Fonseca

× Joao Gari da Silva Fonseca

en Joao Gari da Silva Fonseca

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Takumi Takashima

× Takumi Takashima

en Takumi Takashima

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Takashi Oozeki

× Takashi Oozeki

en Takashi Oozeki

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Ken-ichi Shimose

× Ken-ichi Shimose

en Ken-ichi Shimose

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Yoshinori Yamada

× Yoshinori Yamada

en Yoshinori Yamada

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抄録
内容記述タイプ Other
内容記述 To obtain accurate forecasts of photovoltaic power generation, the use of forecast datasets of meteorological elements from numerical prediction models, specifically global horizontal irradiance (GHI), is necessary. This study seeks to validate, and therefore improve GHI forecasts. Ground-based data from Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) stations are used in a JMA mesoscale model (MSM) during the time period from 2008 to 2012 and temporal and spatial characteristics of forecast errors are analyzed. Statistical monthly evaluations show that associated errors vary between seasons, with monthly GHI mean bias error values ranging from -60 to +45 W/m(2) and root mean square errors (RMSEs) ranging from 95 to 170 W/m(2). Mapping of forecast errors show that underestimation of GHI forecast values and large RMSE values are significant in the southern part of Japan (a subtropical region located along the Pacific Ocean), particularly during summers. In winter, overestimation of GHI forecasts is found throughout the entire Japanese archipelago. The frequency of different cloud type occurrences over the Japanese islands indicate that regional and seasonal variations in cloud types are related to relatively large GHI forecast errors. High-level cirrus clouds, mid-level altocumulus, and low-level stratus are often observed during summer, when forecasted values are underestimated, and during winter, when values are overestimated. (c) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
言語 en
書誌情報 en : SOLAR ENERGY

巻 116, p. 83-99
出版者
言語 en
出版者 PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
ISSN
収録物識別子タイプ ISSN
収録物識別子 0038-092X
DOI
関連識別子 10.1016/j.solener.2015.03.020
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