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  1. 防災科研関係論文

Future Changes in Monthly Extreme Precipitation in Japan Using Large-Ensemble Regional Climate Simulations

https://nied-repo.bosai.go.jp/records/4969
https://nied-repo.bosai.go.jp/records/4969
006e0349-ce0e-444a-a368-12cfc89a7f6b
Item type researchmap(1)
公開日 2023-03-30
タイトル
言語 en
タイトル Future Changes in Monthly Extreme Precipitation in Japan Using Large-Ensemble Regional Climate Simulations
著者 Daisuke Hatsuzuka

× Daisuke Hatsuzuka

en Daisuke Hatsuzuka

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Tomonori Sato

× Tomonori Sato

en Tomonori Sato

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抄録
内容記述タイプ Other
内容記述 Abstract

This study investigated future changes in monthly extreme precipitation in Japan during summer (June?August). The uncertainties in estimating extreme monthly precipitation were analyzed using large-ensemble regional climate simulations for both present and 4-K warmer climates. The main diagnostics were based on the 100-yr return values of monthly total precipitation PT100 estimated from a best-fit probability distribution. Under the warmer climate, PT100 was projected to increase in approximately 87%, 88%, and 78% of the total number of stations for June, July, and August, respectively, suggesting that once-per-century monthly precipitation will increase as temperature increases over a wide area of Japan, although large regional variations will exist. The western part of Kyushu and the Hokkaido region showed significant and moderately robust increases in PT100 throughout the summer months. In contrast, a considerable and robust increase was projected only in June in the Nansei Islands. The percentage change in PT100 was small in western and eastern Japan, and thus the sign of the change was uncertain. Further analysis indicated that uncertainty in internal variability is more important than uncertainty in the SST scenario for future projections of monthly precipitation extremes.
言語 en
書誌情報 en : Journal of Hydrometeorology

巻 20, 号 3, p. 563-574, 発行日 2019-03-01
出版者
言語 en
出版者 American Meteorological Society
ISSN
収録物識別子タイプ EISSN
収録物識別子 1525-7541
DOI
関連識別子 10.1175/jhm-d-18-0095.1
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