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  1. 防災科研関係論文

A possible scenario for earlier occurrence of the next Nankai earthquake due to triggering by an earthquake at Hyuga-nada, off southwest Japan

https://nied-repo.bosai.go.jp/records/5049
https://nied-repo.bosai.go.jp/records/5049
3cb7a237-5b75-4267-9eda-7f867dd8bc73
Item type researchmap(1)
公開日 2023-03-30
タイトル
言語 en
タイトル A possible scenario for earlier occurrence of the next Nankai earthquake due to triggering by an earthquake at Hyuga-nada, off southwest Japan
言語
言語 eng
著者 Mamoru Hyodo

× Mamoru Hyodo

en Mamoru Hyodo

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Takane Hori

× Takane Hori

en Takane Hori

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Yoshiyuki Kaneda

× Yoshiyuki Kaneda

en Yoshiyuki Kaneda

Search repository
抄録
内容記述タイプ Other
内容記述 Several recent large-scale earthquakes including the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (M-w 9.0) in northeastern Japan and the 2014 Iquique earthquake (M-w 8.1) in northern Chile were associated with foreshock activities (M-w > 6). The detailed mechanisms between these large earthquakes and the preceding smaller earthquakes are still unknown; however, to plan for disaster mitigation against the anticipated great Nankai Trough earthquakes, in this study, possible scenarios after M-w 7-class earthquakes that frequently occur near the focal region of the Nankai Trough are examined through quasi-dynamic modeling of seismic cycles. By assuming that simulated Nankai Trough earthquakes recur as two alternative earthquakes with variations in magnitudes (M-w 8.7-8.4) and recurrence intervals (178-143 years), we systematically examine the effect of the occurrence timing of the M-w 7 Hyuga-nada earthquake on the western extension of the source region of Nankai Trough earthquakes on the assumed Nankai Trough seismic cycles. We find that in the latter half of a seismic cycle preceding a large Nankai Trough earthquake, an immature Nankai earthquake tends to be triggered within several years after the occurrence of a Hyuga-nada earthquake, then Tokai (Tonankai) earthquakes occur with maximum time lags of several years. The combined magnitudes of the triggered Nankai and subsequent Tokai (Tonankai) earthquakes become gradually larger with later occurrence of the Hyuga-nada earthquake, while the rupture timings between the Nankai and Tokai (Tonankai) earthquakes become smaller. The triggered occurrence of an immature Nankai Trough earthquake could delay the expected larger Nankai Trough earthquake to the next seismic cycle. Our results indicate that triggering can explain the variety and complexity of historical Nankai Trough earthquakes. Moreover, for the next anticipated event, countermeasures should include the possibility of a triggered occurrence of a Nankai Trough earthquake by an M-w 7 Hyuga-nada earthquake.
言語 en
書誌情報 en : EARTH PLANETS AND SPACE

巻 68
出版者
言語 en
出版者 SPRINGER HEIDELBERG
ISSN
収録物識別子タイプ ISSN
収録物識別子 1880-5981
DOI
関連識別子 10.1186/s40623-016-0384-6
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