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Given that it has been 70 years since the last event, the occurrence of the next devastating earthquake is anticipated in the near future. On April 1, 2016, a moderate earthquake (Mw 5.9, MJMA 6.5) occurred off the southeastern coast of Mie Prefecture in the source region of the 1944 Tonankai earthquake (Mw 8.2). In this study, we investigated the influence of the 2016 earthquake on future megathrust earthquakes. We first determined the hypocenter distributions using a precise velocity structure obtained from seismic surveys in the source region. Using data obtained from the DONET ocean-bottom observation network, we found that this earthquake occurred along the plate boundary fault, which is also believed to have slipped during past megathrust earthquakes. We then performed a preliminary numerical simulation to reproduce the occurrence of a moderate earthquake in the middle of a megathrust earthquake cycle. We used a hierarchical asperity model, in which smaller asperities causing moderate earthquakes are embedded in a hyper-asperity that serves as the source region of megathrust earthquakes. The simulation shows that moderate earthquakes, caused by ruptures of a smaller asperity, occur as a result of shrinkage of strongly coupled areas in the hyper-asperity. This result is consistent with the observation that the hypocenter of the 2016 earthquake was located at the edge of a strongly coupled region along the plate boundary. The simulation also reproduced postseismic slip (afterslip/slow slip) along the plate boundary updip of the hyper-asperity, which is consistent with the observations of slow slip events and very-low-frequency earthquakes after the 2016 earthquake. Thus, the occurrence of the moderate earthquake offshore southeastern Mie Prefecture in the middle of the megathrust earthquake cycle implies that the shrinkage of the strongly coupled area along the plate boundary is occurring as a preparatory process for the next megathrust earthquake in the region. 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  1. 防災科研関係論文

The 2016 Mw 5.9 earthquake off the southeastern coast of Mie Prefecture as an indicator of preparatory processes of the next Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake

https://nied-repo.bosai.go.jp/records/5103
https://nied-repo.bosai.go.jp/records/5103
c4d61c6a-c3ac-455c-949c-6487004d458a
Item type researchmap(1)
公開日 2023-03-30
タイトル
言語 en
タイトル The 2016 Mw 5.9 earthquake off the southeastern coast of Mie Prefecture as an indicator of preparatory processes of the next Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake
言語
言語 eng
著者 Masaru Nakano

× Masaru Nakano

en Masaru Nakano

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Mamoru Hyodo

× Mamoru Hyodo

en Mamoru Hyodo

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Ayako Nakanishi

× Ayako Nakanishi

en Ayako Nakanishi

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Mikiya Yamashita

× Mikiya Yamashita

en Mikiya Yamashita

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Takane Hori

× Takane Hori

en Takane Hori

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Shin-ichiro Kamiya

× Shin-ichiro Kamiya

en Shin-ichiro Kamiya

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Kensuke Suzuki

× Kensuke Suzuki

en Kensuke Suzuki

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Takashi Tonegawa

× Takashi Tonegawa

en Takashi Tonegawa

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Shuichi Kodaira

× Shuichi Kodaira

en Shuichi Kodaira

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Narumi Takahashi

× Narumi Takahashi

en Narumi Takahashi

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Yoshiyuki Kaneda

× Yoshiyuki Kaneda

en Yoshiyuki Kaneda

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抄録
内容記述タイプ Other
内容記述 Megathrust earthquakes have occurred repeatedly at intervals of 100 to 150 years along the Nankai Trough, situated in the southwest of Japan. Given that it has been 70 years since the last event, the occurrence of the next devastating earthquake is anticipated in the near future. On April 1, 2016, a moderate earthquake (Mw 5.9, MJMA 6.5) occurred off the southeastern coast of Mie Prefecture in the source region of the 1944 Tonankai earthquake (Mw 8.2). In this study, we investigated the influence of the 2016 earthquake on future megathrust earthquakes. We first determined the hypocenter distributions using a precise velocity structure obtained from seismic surveys in the source region. Using data obtained from the DONET ocean-bottom observation network, we found that this earthquake occurred along the plate boundary fault, which is also believed to have slipped during past megathrust earthquakes. We then performed a preliminary numerical simulation to reproduce the occurrence of a moderate earthquake in the middle of a megathrust earthquake cycle. We used a hierarchical asperity model, in which smaller asperities causing moderate earthquakes are embedded in a hyper-asperity that serves as the source region of megathrust earthquakes. The simulation shows that moderate earthquakes, caused by ruptures of a smaller asperity, occur as a result of shrinkage of strongly coupled areas in the hyper-asperity. This result is consistent with the observation that the hypocenter of the 2016 earthquake was located at the edge of a strongly coupled region along the plate boundary. The simulation also reproduced postseismic slip (afterslip/slow slip) along the plate boundary updip of the hyper-asperity, which is consistent with the observations of slow slip events and very-low-frequency earthquakes after the 2016 earthquake. Thus, the occurrence of the moderate earthquake offshore southeastern Mie Prefecture in the middle of the megathrust earthquake cycle implies that the shrinkage of the strongly coupled area along the plate boundary is occurring as a preparatory process for the next megathrust earthquake in the region. [Figure not available: see fulltext.].
言語 en
書誌情報 en : Progress in Earth and Planetary Science

巻 5, 号 1
出版者
言語 en
出版者 Springer Berlin Heidelberg
ISSN
収録物識別子タイプ ISSN
収録物識別子 2197-4284
DOI
関連識別子 10.1186/s40645-018-0188-3
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