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気象庁週間予報モデルの日射量予測の誤差評価
https://nied-repo.bosai.go.jp/records/5304
https://nied-repo.bosai.go.jp/records/53049cf9ba42-fbc5-41be-8216-0f2f85b5927e
| Item type | researchmap(1) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 公開日 | 2023-03-30 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| タイトル | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 言語 | ja | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| タイトル | 気象庁週間予報モデルの日射量予測の誤差評価 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| タイトル | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| タイトル | Evaluation of Forecast Errors of the Global Solar Irradiance Obtained from the Japan Meteorological Agency Global Spectral Model | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 言語 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 言語 | jpn | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 著者 |
大竹秀明
× 大竹秀明
× 下瀬健一
× DA SILVA FONSECA JUNIOR J. G.
× 高島工
× 大関崇
× 山田芳則
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| 抄録 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 内容記述 | In this paper, forecasts of the daily global horizontal irradiance (GHI) obtained from the global spectral model (GSM) developed at the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) are evaluated using the surface-observed data at the six JMA stations for the four years during 2009-2012. Seasonal and regional characteristics of forecast errors of GSM GHI and the relationship between forecast errors and the length of the lead time of the forecasts are also investigated. The mean bias errors (MBE) of the monthly averaged GHI forecasts at Tsukuba station ranges from 0.5kWh/m<sup>2</sup> to 2.1kWh/m<sup>2</sup> per day and the root mean square errors (RMSE) of the forecasts ranges from 0.5 to 2.2kWh/m<sup>2</sup> per day. Annual changes of both the MBE and the RMSE values are not large during the four years. Regional and seasonal characteristics of forecast errors are also found; negative biases in summer (positive biases in winter) are found in the Ishigakijima station, while positive biases are significant in all seasons at the other five stations. We also confirmed that RMSE values of the monthly GSM GHI are depended on the length of the lead time of the forecasts from 1-day ahead to 3-days ahead. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 言語 | ja | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 抄録 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 内容記述 | In this paper, forecasts of the daily global horizontal irradiance (GHI) obtained from the global spectral model (GSM) developed at the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) are evaluated using the surface-observed data at the six JMA stations for the four years during 2009-2012. Seasonal and regional characteristics of forecast errors of GSM GHI and the relationship between forecast errors and the length of the lead time of the forecasts are also investigated. The mean bias errors (MBE) of the monthly averaged GHI forecasts at Tsukuba station ranges from 0.5kWh/m<sup>2</sup> to 2.1kWh/m<sup>2</sup> per day and the root mean square errors (RMSE) of the forecasts ranges from 0.5 to 2.2kWh/m<sup>2</sup> per day. Annual changes of both the MBE and the RMSE values are not large during the four years. Regional and seasonal characteristics of forecast errors are also found; negative biases in summer (positive biases in winter) are found in the Ishigakijima station, while positive biases are significant in all seasons at the other five stations. We also confirmed that RMSE values of the monthly GSM GHI are depended on the length of the lead time of the forecasts from 1-day ahead to 3-days ahead. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 書誌情報 |
ja : 電気学会論文誌 B en : 電気学会論文誌 B 巻 134, 号 6, p. 501-509 |
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| 出版者 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 言語 | ja | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 出版者 | 一般社団法人 電気学会 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 出版者 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 出版者 | The Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ISSN | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 収録物識別子タイプ | EISSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 収録物識別子 | 1348-8147 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| DOI | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 関連識別子 | 10.1541/ieejpes.134.501 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
