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  1. 防災科研関係論文

A Physics-Based Simulation of the 2003 Tokachi-oki, Japan, Earthquake to Predict Strong Ground Motions

https://nied-repo.bosai.go.jp/records/5325
https://nied-repo.bosai.go.jp/records/5325
a6862b5f-c5d8-4eed-ba35-2784c1a9526e
Item type researchmap(1)
公開日 2023-03-30
タイトル
言語 en
タイトル A Physics-Based Simulation of the 2003 Tokachi-oki, Japan, Earthquake to Predict Strong Ground Motions
言語
言語 eng
著者 Eiichi Fukuyama

× Eiichi Fukuyama

en Eiichi Fukuyama

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Ryosuke Ando

× Ryosuke Ando

en Ryosuke Ando

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Chihiro Hashimoto

× Chihiro Hashimoto

en Chihiro Hashimoto

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Shin Aoi

× Shin Aoi

en Shin Aoi

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Mitsuhiro Matsu'ura

× Mitsuhiro Matsu'ura

en Mitsuhiro Matsu'ura

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抄録
内容記述タイプ Other
内容記述 We demonstrate the usefulness of physics-based integrated simulation of subduction earthquakes for making strong-motion predictions in a deterministic way. We estimated strong ground motions caused by a 2003 Tokachi-oki-like earthquake, taking into account the stress accumulation due to tectonic loading, dynamic rupture propagation due to the failure of asperities, and generation of strong ground motions. Then we compared the synthetic seismograms with those observed during the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake (M 8: 0) to confirm that simple but physically reasonable modeling can obtain a reasonable estimate of ground motions of large earthquakes in view of peak ground velocities, duration, and velocity response spectra. It should be emphasized that this procedure is quite important to constructing a physics-based earthquake generation model that would be available for the prediction of strong ground motions and mitigation of disasters due to future large earthquakes. And this feature will not be achieved by traditional experience-based kinematic modeling approaches. Of course, this simulation includes quite a few uncertain parameters, but the parameter search experiment itself will help us construct useful scenarios of possible disasters we will suffer in the future. Hypocenter location is one of the most uncertain parameters in this simulation. We investigated the effect of uncertainty of hypocenter location on the computed strong motions quantitatively. The result shows that the variation in response spectra of ground velocities is within a factor of 2 at 3.3 sec and a factor of 4 at 15 sec, which is not serious compared to the local site amplification effects.
言語 en
書誌情報 en : BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA

巻 99, 号 6, p. 3150-3171
出版者
言語 en
出版者 SEISMOLOGICAL SOC AMER
ISSN
収録物識別子タイプ EISSN
収録物識別子 1943-3573
DOI
関連識別子 10.1785/0120080040
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