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  1. 防災科研関係論文

Implementation of a Real-Time System for Automatic Aftershock Forecasting in Japan

https://nied-repo.bosai.go.jp/records/5355
https://nied-repo.bosai.go.jp/records/5355
f357a4ef-4f1e-442b-a461-1f4269e44e26
Item type researchmap(1)
公開日 2023-03-30
タイトル
言語 en
タイトル Implementation of a Real-Time System for Automatic Aftershock Forecasting in Japan
言語
言語 eng
著者 Takahiro Omi

× Takahiro Omi

en Takahiro Omi

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Yosihiko Ogata

× Yosihiko Ogata

en Yosihiko Ogata

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Katsuhiko Shiomi

× Katsuhiko Shiomi

en Katsuhiko Shiomi

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Bogdan Enescu

× Bogdan Enescu

en Bogdan Enescu

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Kaoru Sawazaki

× Kaoru Sawazaki

en Kaoru Sawazaki

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Kazuyuki Aihara

× Kazuyuki Aihara

en Kazuyuki Aihara

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抄録
内容記述タイプ Other
内容記述 We present a prototype of a real-time system for automatic aftershock forecasting in Japan. Using real-time seismicity data from the High Sensitivity Seismograph Network of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED), the system automatically generates rapid aftershock forecasts. The system starts to issue a time-dependent forecast about 3 hrs after a mainshock and keeps updating it hourly. The forecast includes the estimated occurrence probabilities of earthquakes with magnitudes equal to or greater than a mainshock. Because an official procedure for aftershock forecasting in Japan does not provide aftershock probabilities in the first week after a large earthquake, this rapid response of the system after a mainshock can complement the existing procedure. We demonstrate the system's performance for the cases of three inland earthquakes that occurred after the establishment of the system in April 2017. We also discuss the potential usefulness of our procedure for forecasting large earthquakes by conducting a retrospective forecast test for the 2016 Kumamoto foreshock-mainshock-aftershock sequence based on the real-time seismicity data. Our monitoring system is useful for providing continuous timely information on time-dependent aftershock probabilities.
言語 en
書誌情報 en : SEISMOLOGICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

巻 90, 号 1, p. 242-250
出版者
言語 en
出版者 SEISMOLOGICAL SOC AMER
ISSN
収録物識別子タイプ EISSN
収録物識別子 1938-2057
DOI
関連識別子 10.1785/0220180213
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