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  1. 防災科研関係論文

A Forecasting Procedure for Plate Boundary Earthquakes Based on Sequential Data Assimilation

https://nied-repo.bosai.go.jp/records/5978
https://nied-repo.bosai.go.jp/records/5978
18c6cac0-a970-468a-b13d-25d85e957bb0
Item type researchmap(1)
公開日 2023-03-30
タイトル
言語 en
タイトル A Forecasting Procedure for Plate Boundary Earthquakes Based on Sequential Data Assimilation
言語
言語 eng
著者 Takane Hori

× Takane Hori

en Takane Hori

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Mamoru Hyodo

× Mamoru Hyodo

en Mamoru Hyodo

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Ryoko Nakata

× Ryoko Nakata

en Ryoko Nakata

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Shin'ichi Miyazaki

× Shin'ichi Miyazaki

en Shin'ichi Miyazaki

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Yoshiyuki Kaneda

× Yoshiyuki Kaneda

en Yoshiyuki Kaneda

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抄録
内容記述タイプ Other
内容記述 A forecasting procedure is proposed for plate boundary earthquakes in subduction zones. It is based on spatio-temporal variation in slip velocity on the plate interface, which causes interplate earthquakes. Model outputs are not only information about the occurrence of great earthquakes (time, place, and magnitude) but also information about the physical state evolution that causes earthquakes. To overcome the difficulty in forecasting earthquake generation resulting from uncertainty both in the physical model and in the observation data, we introduce a type of sequential data assimilation. In this method, we compare observed crustal deformation data to simulations of several great interplate earthquake generation cycles. We are currently constructing a prototype, applying this forecasting procedure to the Nankai Trough, Southwest Japan, where great interplate earthquakes have occurred and are anticipated.
言語 en
書誌情報 en : OCEANOGRAPHY

巻 27, 号 2, p. 94-102, 発行日 2014-06
出版者
言語 en
出版者 OCEANOGRAPHY SOC
ISSN
収録物識別子タイプ ISSN
収録物識別子 1042-8275
DOI
関連識別子 10.5670/oceanog.2014.44
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