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  1. 防災科研関係論文

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment based on the Gutenberg?Richter law in eastern Shikoku, Nankai subduction zone, Japan

https://nied-repo.bosai.go.jp/records/6403
https://nied-repo.bosai.go.jp/records/6403
2843f7bf-706e-4c55-a24e-ecba7bd6d431
Item type researchmap(1)
公開日 2023-09-20
タイトル
言語 en
タイトル Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment based on the Gutenberg?Richter law in eastern Shikoku, Nankai subduction zone, Japan
著者 Toshitaka Baba

× Toshitaka Baba

en Toshitaka Baba

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Masato Kamiya

× Masato Kamiya

en Masato Kamiya

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Naoki Tanaka

× Naoki Tanaka

en Naoki Tanaka

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Yusuke Sumida

× Yusuke Sumida

en Yusuke Sumida

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Ryoichi Yamanaka

× Ryoichi Yamanaka

en Ryoichi Yamanaka

Search repository
Kojiro Watanabe

× Kojiro Watanabe

en Kojiro Watanabe

Search repository
Hiroyuki Fujiwara

× Hiroyuki Fujiwara

en Hiroyuki Fujiwara

Search repository
抄録
内容記述タイプ Other
内容記述 Abstract

Earthquake and tsunami predictions comprise huge uncertainties, thus necessitating probabilistic assessments for the design of defense facilities and urban planning. In recent years, computer development has advanced probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments (PTHAs), where hazard curves show the exceedance probability of the maximum tsunami height. However, owing to the lack of historical and geological tsunami records, this method is generally insufficient for validating the estimated hazard curves. The eastern coast of Shikoku in the Nankai subduction zone, Japan, is suitable for validation because tsunami records from historical Nankai Trough earthquakes are available. This study evaluated PTHAs by comparing the tsunami hazard curves and exceedance frequencies of historical Nankai Trough tsunamis. We considered 3480 earthquake scenarios representing the rupture patterns of past Nankai earthquakes and calculated all tsunamis. The probability of earthquake occurrence was based on the Gutenberg?Richter law. We considered uncertainty in tsunami calculations with astronomical tide variations. The estimated tsunami hazard curves are consistent with the exceedance frequencies obtained from historical tsunamis. In addition, sensitivity tests indicate the significance of the earthquake slip heterogeneity and tsunami defense facilities in PTHAs. We also extended the PTHAs to tsunami inundation maps in high resolution and proposed an effective new method for reducing the tsunami computation load.

Graphical Abstract
言語 en
書誌情報 en : Earth, Planets and Space

巻 74, 号 1, 発行日 2022-10-22
出版者
言語 en
出版者 Springer Science and Business Media LLC
ISSN
収録物識別子タイプ EISSN
収録物識別子 1880-5981
DOI
関連識別子 10.1186/s40623-022-01715-1
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