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  1. 防災科研関係論文

Prediction of Meso-γ-Scale Local Heavy Rain by Ground-Based Cloud Radar Assimilation with Water Vapor Nudging

https://nied-repo.bosai.go.jp/records/6648
https://nied-repo.bosai.go.jp/records/6648
d6b3ccdf-2cc7-4398-b583-bca96fa9cd65
Item type researchmap(1)
公開日 2024-05-27
タイトル
言語 en
タイトル Prediction of Meso-γ-Scale Local Heavy Rain by Ground-Based Cloud Radar Assimilation with Water Vapor Nudging
言語
言語 eng
著者 Ryohei Kato

× Ryohei Kato

en Ryohei Kato

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Shingo Shimizu

× Shingo Shimizu

en Shingo Shimizu

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Tadayasu Ohigashi

× Tadayasu Ohigashi

en Tadayasu Ohigashi

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Takeshi Maesaka

× Takeshi Maesaka

en Takeshi Maesaka

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Ken-ichi Shimose

× Ken-ichi Shimose

en Ken-ichi Shimose

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Koyuru Iwanami

× Koyuru Iwanami

en Koyuru Iwanami

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抄録
内容記述タイプ Other
内容記述 Meso-γ-scale (2–20 km) local heavy rain (LHR) can cause fatalities through the sudden rise of rivers and flooding of roads. To help prevent this loss of life, we developed prediction methods for these types of meteorological hazards. We assimilated ground-based cloud radar (Ka-band radar) data that can capture cloud droplets before raindrops form and attempted to predict LHR with a cloud resolving numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. High-temporal (1-min interval) three-dimensional cloud radar data obtained through special observation were assimilated using a water vapor nudging method in the pre-rain stage of an LHR-causing cumulonimbus. While rainfall was not predicted by the NWP model without assimilation, LHR was predicted approximately 20 min after the conclusion of cloud radar data assimilation cycling. Results suggest that NWP with cloud radar data assimilation in the pre-rain stage has great potential for predicting LHR, and can lead to an early evacuation warning and subsequent evacuation of vulnerable populations. Significance Statement The development of prediction methods for local (within several kilometers) heavy rain (LHR) is important because LHR events can cause deaths through the sudden rise of rivers and flooding of roads by rapidly developing (≤30 min) rain clouds. This study aims to develop a method for predicting LHR even before it begins to rain, which has been difficult to date. Using a technique called data assimilation, which integrates observation and simulation, we developed a method for assimilating cloud radar observations that can capture cloud droplets before raindrops form. As a result, we succeeded in predicting LHR before rainfall commenced. By extending and applying this research, early evacuation of vulnerable populations during LHR is possible.
言語 en
書誌情報 en : Weather and Forecasting

巻 37, 号 9, p. 1553-1566, 発行日 2022-09
出版者
言語 en
出版者 American Meteorological Society
ISSN
収録物識別子タイプ EISSN
収録物識別子 1520-0434
DOI
関連識別子 10.1175/waf-d-22-0017.1
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