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  1. 防災科研関係論文

Estimating the Nankai Trough Megathrust Earthquake’s Anticipated Fiscal Impact on Japanese Governments

https://nied-repo.bosai.go.jp/records/6706
https://nied-repo.bosai.go.jp/records/6706
4554ecaf-c49e-4ca4-9107-26359bea7499
Item type researchmap(1)
公開日 2024-07-22
タイトル
言語 ja
タイトル Estimating the Nankai Trough Megathrust Earthquake’s Anticipated Fiscal Impact on Japanese Governments
タイトル
言語 en
タイトル Estimating the Nankai Trough Megathrust Earthquake’s Anticipated Fiscal Impact on Japanese Governments
著者 MIYAZAKI, Takeshi

× MIYAZAKI, Takeshi

ja MIYAZAKI, Takeshi

en Takeshi Miyazaki

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NAGAMATSU,Shingo

× NAGAMATSU,Shingo

ja NAGAMATSU,Shingo

en Shingo Nagamatsu

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抄録
内容記述タイプ Other
内容記述 This study estimates the fiscal impact of the anticipated Nankai Trough Megathrust Earthquake on both the national and local Japanese governments to identify their sovereign risk. First, we estimate the impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake on local public finance using panel data regressions on 2008?2015 fiscal data. Second, based on the anticipated damage data ? seismic intensity and area of inundation ? of the Nankai earthquake and the coefficients derived from the first step, we estimate the amounts of fiscal revenue and expenditures that would be required by every local government for the anticipated Nankai earthquake. Finally, we estimate the fiscal expenditure of the national government in proportion to the estimated local ones. We find that first, the estimated fiscal requirements in the two years after the earthquake are about JPY 161 trillion, 5.9 times those of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. Second, the financial disparity between affected and non-affected local governments is large because the Nankai earthquake would affect more municipalities than the Great East Japan Earthquake. The fiscal burden of non-affected municipalities would be relatively higher. These findings indicate that the Nankai earthquake will not only be a local disaster but also a national catastrophe.
言語 en
書誌情報 ja : Journal of Disaster Research
en : Journal of Disaster Research

巻 15, 号 5, p. 633-644, 発行日 2020-08-01
出版者
言語 en
出版者 Fuji Technology Press Ltd.
ISSN
収録物識別子タイプ EISSN
収録物識別子 1883-8030
DOI
関連識別子 10.20965/jdr.2020.p0633
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