{"_buckets": {"deposit": "7d1fcb38-8425-4d6e-a34b-e2eef59870a3"}, "_deposit": {"created_by": 6, "id": "772", "owner": "1", "owners": [6], "pid": {"revision_id": 0, "type": "depid", "value": "772"}, "status": "published"}, "_oai": {"id": "oai:nied-repo.bosai.go.jp:00000772", "sets": ["742"]}, "author_link": [], "item_10001_biblio_info_7": {"attribute_name": "書誌情報", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"bibliographicIssueDates": {"bibliographicIssueDate": "2022-01-28", "bibliographicIssueDateType": "Issued"}, "bibliographicIssueNumber": "56", "bibliographicPageEnd": "23", "bibliographicPageStart": "11", "bibliographic_titles": [{"bibliographic_title": "主要災害調査", "bibliographic_titleLang": "ja"}, {"bibliographic_title": "Natural Disaster Research Report", "bibliographic_titleLang": "en"}]}]}, "item_10001_description_5": {"attribute_name": "抄録", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"subitem_description": "本研究では，線状降水帯の積算雨量を高精度に予測するための降水予測システムを試作し，初期解析として2019年8月27日の佐賀県で発生した線状降水帯の予測精度を現業予測（気象庁による速報版降水短時間予測）と比較することで，開発した予測システムの特性を明らかにした．開発した予測システムは，ナウキャスト予測で1時間先までの予測を行い，後半の1時間の予測を数値予測で得られる結果に置き換える簡便なブレンディング法を採用した．さらに，予測された雨量について，雨量予測の位置ズレによる積算雨量予測が過小とならないように捕捉率を高める最大値フィルターを適用した．最大値フィルターとは，各格子点での降水予測量を，その格子点の周辺数kmの降水量の最大値とする処理を指す．開発した予測手法は，線状降水帯の発達期前半（3時から4時を初期値とする予測）において速報版降水短時間予測に対して，大幅に過小評価を改善した．一方で，線状降水帯の発達期後半（4時から5時を初期値とする予測）においては，速報版降水短時間予測に比べて大幅に過大な予測を行った．本研究で開発した予測システムは，急激に発達する線状降水帯の積算雨量予測において有効であると考えられる．\nWe developed a new forecast system for accumulated rainfall caused by a quasi-stational line-shaped precipitation system (QSLP) and applied it to the case of heavy rainfall on 28th August 2019 around Saga Prefecture, Japan. The accuracy of forecasted amount of rainfall from the new forecast system was validated using surface observation and compared with the prompt version of the operational short-range precipitation forecast system. To forecast 2-hour rainfall amount, the new system employs a simple blending forecast model combined with nowcasting in the first hour and numerical weather prediction with 1 km resolution in the subsequent hour. We applied a maximum filter to the forecasted 2-hour rainfall to avoid underestimation based on displacement error information. The maximum filter is defined as the maximum of all grid points within a local region around a grid point. Our results showed better predictability than the operational short-range precipitation forecast, especially in the first half of the QSLP developing stage. By contrast, the results were overestimated in the subsequent half of the developing stage. Thus, blending forecast with a maximum filter based on displacement error information can accurately predict 2-hour accumulated rainfall in the early development stage of QSLP.", "subitem_description_language": "ja", "subitem_description_type": "Abstract"}]}, "item_10001_identifier_registration": {"attribute_name": "ID登録", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"subitem_identifier_reg_text": "10.24732/NIED.00002406", "subitem_identifier_reg_type": "JaLC"}]}, "item_10001_publisher_8": {"attribute_name": "出版者", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"subitem_publisher": "防災科学技術研究所", "subitem_publisher_language": "ja"}]}, "item_10001_relation_17": {"attribute_name": "関連サイト", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"subitem_relation_name": [{"subitem_relation_name_text": "主要災害調査一覧"}], "subitem_relation_type_id": {"subitem_relation_type_id_text": "https://dil-opac.bosai.go.jp/publication/nied_natural_disaster/index.html", "subitem_relation_type_select": "URI"}}]}, "item_10001_source_id_9": {"attribute_name": "収録物識別子", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"subitem_source_identifier": "1347-7498", "subitem_source_identifier_type": "EISSN"}]}, "item_creator": {"attribute_name": "著者", "attribute_type": "creator", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"creatorNames": [{"creatorName": "清水 慎吾", "creatorNameLang": "ja"}, {"creatorName": "シミズ シンゴ", "creatorNameLang": "ja-Kana"}], "familyNames": [{"familyName": "清水", "familyNameLang": "ja"}, {"familyName": "シミズ", "familyNameLang": "ja-Kana"}], "givenNames": [{"givenName": "慎吾", "givenNameLang": "ja"}, {"givenName": "シンゴ", "givenNameLang": "ja-Kana"}]}, {"creatorNames": [{"creatorName": "加藤 亮平", "creatorNameLang": "ja"}, {"creatorName": "カトウ リョウヘイ", "creatorNameLang": "ja-Kana"}], "familyNames": [{"familyName": "加藤", "familyNameLang": "ja"}, {"familyName": "カトウ", "familyNameLang": "ja-Kana"}], "givenNames": [{"givenName": "亮平", "givenNameLang": "ja"}, {"givenName": "リョウヘイ", "givenNameLang": "ja-Kana"}]}, {"creatorNames": [{"creatorName": "前坂 剛", "creatorNameLang": "ja"}, {"creatorName": "マエサカ タケシ", "creatorNameLang": "ja-Kana"}], "familyNames": [{"familyName": "前坂", "familyNameLang": "ja"}, {"familyName": "マエサカ", "familyNameLang": "ja-Kana"}], "givenNames": [{"givenName": "剛", "givenNameLang": "ja"}, {"givenName": "タケシ", "givenNameLang": "ja-Kana"}]}]}, "item_files": {"attribute_name": "ファイル情報", "attribute_type": "file", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"accessrole": "open_access", "download_preview_message": "", "file_order": 0, "filename": "2406_22_1.pdf", "format": "application/pdf", "future_date_message": "", "is_thumbnail": false, "mimetype": "application/pdf", "size": 0, "url": {"label": "56-3.pdf", "url": "https://nied-repo.bosai.go.jp/record/772/files/2406_22_1.pdf"}, "version_id": "a9df342c-c104-4732-8e04-1cebde7be165"}]}, "item_keyword": {"attribute_name": "キーワード", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"subitem_subject": "線状降水帯,最大値フィルターを併用したブレンディング予測", "subitem_subject_language": "ja", "subitem_subject_scheme": "Other"}, {"subitem_subject": "Quasi-stationary line-shaped precipitation system,Blending forecast with maximum filter", "subitem_subject_language": "en", "subitem_subject_scheme": "Other"}]}, "item_language": {"attribute_name": "言語", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"subitem_language": "jpn"}]}, "item_resource_type": {"attribute_name": "資源タイプ", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"resourcetype": "article", "resourceuri": "http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501"}]}, "item_title": "2019年8月28日に佐賀県に大雨をもたらした線状降水帯の予測可能性に関する研究", "item_titles": {"attribute_name": "タイトル", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"subitem_title": "2019年8月28日に佐賀県に大雨をもたらした線状降水帯の予測可能性に関する研究", "subitem_title_language": "ja"}, {"subitem_title": "Predictability of Quasi-Stationary Line-Shaped Precipitation System Causing Heavy\\nRainfall Around Saga Pref. on 28th August 2019", "subitem_title_language": "en"}]}, "item_type_id": "10001", "owner": "6", "path": ["742"], "permalink_uri": "https://doi.org/10.24732/NIED.00002406", "pubdate": {"attribute_name": "PubDate", "attribute_value": "2020-12-18"}, "publish_date": "2020-12-18", "publish_status": "0", "recid": "772", "relation": {}, "relation_version_is_last": true, "title": ["2019年8月28日に佐賀県に大雨をもたらした線状降水帯の予測可能性に関する研究"], "weko_shared_id": -1}